A herd of tail risks [updated]

Posted by Joseph Cotterill on Jun 17 16:58. 21 comments | Share

In which around 800 global investors polled by the Economist Intelligence Unit and BNY Mellon believe that deflation is as likely as a recovery in US housing — plus, other tail risk reflections in this chart here (click to enlarge): More…

In which around 800 global investors polled by the Economist Intelligence Unit and BNY Mellon believe that deflation is as likely as a recovery in US housing — plus, other tail risk reflections in this chart here (click to enlarge):

And the scenarios:

Interesting, isn’t it? The big negative risk no one saw coming in 2010 is now ‘highly likely’ to affect the rest of 2011. Recency bias or astute market call?

Full EIU report here.

Update – Ando in comments has a good point. The world needs a proper collective noun for tail risks.

So consider this an impromptu competition to find the right phrase.

It’s a herd of (black) swans by the way, but any fule kno that tail risks aren’t the same as black swans. Entries close in a week (or maybe tomorrow) and the lucky winner will receive an old stick of Nomura-branded rock currently sitting on FT Alphaville’s desk (don’t ask) or absolutely nothing.

Tail risk, innit.

Related link:
On powerpoint and political risk – FT Alphaville

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